Bet on Big Corn

Attempting to predict what food and agriculture will look like in 50 years is a tall task.  50 years ago microwaves were a luxury, the fast-food industry was in its infancy, and farms were smaller and less specialized.  In short, a person living in 1962 would have been hard pressed to envision the current state of food and agriculture in the U.S. As such, I expect that by 2012 what we eat and how we grow it will be drastically different.

Initially, when I pondered my answer to this question, I thought more about the recent trend toward organics, slow food, and traditional techniques.  Maybe this represented the future.  However, I saw some issues with the plausibility of this, and reading Robert Paarlberg's Foreign Policy article reinforced my skepticism and really got me thinking as to whether organic, slow farming techniques are actually even a good thing.  I will not address his stance on pesticides as it directly contradicts Cesar Chavez's message, but simply, Parrlberg makes it clear that the world would not be able to the current population.  As such, I believe that agriculture and food will become even more mechanized and high tech in the future.  I anticipate that there will be even larger farms that are even more specialized. I expect, however, that there will also be a substantial increase in lab-grown food, particularly meat products.  Feedlots are currently among the most controversial issues within the food industry because of the cruel treatment to which animals are subjected as well as the health risks involved.  As such, I suspect that feed lots will be a thing of the past and that animals will either be raised free range or synthetic meat will be grown in a lab, which I imagine could be more controversial.

As far as what people actually consume, I would like to say that I expect people to eat healthier and consume less processed foods.  Considering recent advances in nutrition and health movements, I think that this is possible.  I also expect that city and state governments will start placing taxes on or outright banning certain products like how some cities have banned trans-fats.  That said, I do not expect corn-syrup to go anywhere as the primary sweetener used in the U.S.  Big Corn, unfortunately, is here to stay.  Realistically, no politician or group of politicians is going to risk passing legislation against it; the corn industry simply has too much money and too strong of a lobby to fight. 

Barring the discovery/invention of a clean, cheap, and reliable fuel source, food transportation costs will have risen swiftly in 50 years.  As a result, though most parts of the U.S. will still be able to afford to have their food shipped to them from all over the world, poorer areas and poorer nations certainly will not be able to do so.  Accordingly, we will either see the rise of some local, cheaper agriculture or we will see the expansion of food deserts in poor areas.  Grocery stores will be large and un-specialized.  Finally, I expect to see a rise in individuals growing their own vegetables, herbs, and spices in the suburbs as way to counteract rising food costs as a result high fuel prices.  In more urban ares, there will be an increase in the number of community gardens.  Overall, food will be extremely different in 50 years; in what way it will be different, however, could vary greatly.