Are you crazy? The fall with probably kill you...

For those who haven't seen the classic Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid our heroes are trying to outrun the cops and are contemplating jumping off the edge of a waterfall. I can't say that I have ever been on the run from the cops, but I have an experience or two with waterfalls.

Being from Arkansas and having a family business right on the river, I have spent many hours paddling the Buffalo River which is normally not terribly wild. During a summer weekend, we were on the road to the start of our path when the sky opened up. As if the old god Poseidon awoke from his slumber to find humans no longer worshiped him, the rains came down in vengeful sheets. The river was already swollen from the weekend storms, and this one was just too much. By the time we reached our put-in, the river had already flooded. The normally docile put-in had turned into a roaring beast devouring trees and the banks. Intrigued by the new landscape, the four of us jumped into our kayaks and were swept down the river. I found myself paddling through trees which I had been hiking past and climbing the week before. Whirlpools and new paths threw me left and right, and I spent as much time out of my kayak as I did in it. Normally I was confident on the river, but that day, I knew that the water was in command, and I had to respect its domain.

The river continued to throw me down its path. What was normally a four hour paddle was quickly coming to a close in under three. And with the continued rains, it was only getting more vicious. Over the booming thunder, I heard the distinct howl of crashing water. Because of the flood the river's path had straightened and I was headed straight for a ledge. In the speed of the water, I had no time to correct my course, so I could only go over. Relying purely on instinct and adrenaline, I dug into the river to straighten my kayak and then threw my hands up with my paddle and let the current take me. A rock, hidden under the rushing white water, caught my kayak at the perfect angle and knocked me sideways. Before I could process what was happening, I felt myself slide from the seat and tumble through the air. I arched through the rain and the river below me quickly approached. With a hard splash, I was underwater and tumbling through the current. I surfaced a few moments later pinned to a nearly submerged tree branch and still shocked by what had happened.

My kayak floated down to me and I slid back in. After the waterfall, the river seemed to mystically calm as the flood opened up into a field. I silently glided through the submerged grazing land and, overwhelmed by the complete silence I was surrounded by. It was eerie, and I felt incredibly small in the wake of the flood waters which erased the field and nearby road.

Saving nature is of utmost importance to our livelihood. Regardless of how much we try to command and control nature, we still have a primal relationship with it. Beyond the physiological needs, man seems to be spiritually connected to earth. In our cities, we plant trees, to bring a little bit of nature with us when we leave her embrace. We put flowers in our windows, plants on our balconies and grass in our yards. There is still something mystical about being out in a field with the wind blowing around us. Even the most sheltered sterile people I know who were born and will die in a city, cannot escape the appeal of going out for hiking, even it it just means walking through the woods. It's a place where we can quiet our minds and replenish our spirit. When people take vacations, especially those who work in cities, they end up traveling to natural locations. We even bring nature into ours homes in the form of domesticated animals. For eons, religions have centered around nature, and some still exist today including Shintoism and Animism. It is the purist of finding a new wilderness that fuels our desire to find new life, or exist on other planets. So many motivations come from our relationship with nature, and our need to participate in it.

Despite our push toward urbanization, I don't feel is it were man is truly supposed to exist. At our core, we are animals and you can only cage a beast or so long before it needs to be freed.

The Jungle for the 21st Century

In 1906, Upton Sinclair published The Jungle, a book that would go on to redefine the American food industry. Vivid descriptions of workers falling into vats of meat and ending up inside sausages or cans captivated the American public, and precipitated the Meat Inspection Act and the Pure Food and Drug Act. The food industry needs The Jungle for the 21st Century.

In many senses, the American people are spoiled by large quantities of easily accessible food. While food deserts exist in many poor urban areas, access the food (albeit of low quality "fast food" or of minimal nutritional content) is unparalleled in the United States. Well stocked shelves and a cornucopia of choices has left the American public disillusioned about the realities of their food. Industrial processing plants, monocultures, and feed pens with thousands of cattle are beyond the scope of the collective consciousness.

A new "Jungle" must implore consumers to reconnect with their food, to understand the who (who planted it, raised it, and harvested it), the where (where does it come from), and the how (how did it end up on my plate). Changes within the food industry can only occur with public pressure. The effectiveness of the Cesar Chavez led the Grape Protests of 1960s shows that widespread public outcry is what moves industry, not a pure sense of moral duty.

It is important to note that before continuing to envision the food industry in 50 years, the accomplishments of the past century must be acknowledged. People around the world are being fed at greater rates than ever before. Food has never been more nutritious or safer, and more is being produced than ever before. However, despite these achievements, there is no reason to not continue to improve the food and agriculture industry.

The next 50 years will not be an undoing of the previous 50. Instead, the future of the food industry--the vision moving forward--is one of increased environmental awareness and social responsibility. As it stands today, organic agriculture is growing faster than traditional agriculture; this trend will continue. However, the changes over the next 50 years will be even more dramatic.

By 2020, increased concerns about food health and safety as it relates to where food is produced will lead to new labeling systems that will identify exactly where a product is made. This information will also include the total distance the the various substances in the product have traveled. American consumers will fear "Made in China" in terms of food, far more than they fear "Made in China" in terms of toys or clothes.

The current trend in localvorism will continue as more families grow their own produce. Urban rooftop gardens, school gardens, and community gardens will become commonplace in an echo of an earlier generation. Furthermore, gardening as a form of patriotism (akin to the Victory Gardens of WWII), will be normalized.

A recent study published by USDA researcher Adam Davis, supports the concept of sustainable farming in concert with dramatic reductions in pesticides and chemical use. Davis and his colleagues advocate for an integration of the industrial and the organic (similar to Raj Patel). Wired Magazine and Mark Bittman both recently covered the study (http://bit.ly/Rj0gV8 and http://nyti.ms/R8sfZY). Bittman says it best:

"The results were stunning: The longer rotations produced better yields of both corn and soy, reduced the need for nitrogen fertilizer and herbicides by up to 88 percent, reduced the amounts of toxins in groudwater 200-fold and didn't reduce profits by a single cent."

One final idea (or vision) for the future of food has three body segments, six legs, antenna, and compound eyes. Yes. Bugs. High in protein, cheap to produce, and low impact of for the environment, insects have been eaten around the world but are rarely used in Western cuisine. In an extreme shift, bugs and food become commonplace. Major social shifts must occur to get over the "ick" factor, but once celebrities, athletes, and music icons are seen chomping on some fried crickets or a tarantula on a stick, Americans will be hooked. In all seriousness, the consumption of insects as food may be the best way to feed billions of people while also preserving the planet. However, the hurdles facing such a change seem almost insurmountable.

A brighter future of food can only occur through public pressure and change. There have been many "mini-Jungles" over the past decade, The Omnivore's Dilemma or Super-Size Me, but American's hearts need a seminal, earth-shattering story to change their stomachs.

Freeze-Dried Filet Mignon from Space Is the Future of Food

Only kidding, but it might be as revolutionary. 

50 years ago it was the fall of 1962 in America.  The thin wartime days of rationing were but a distant memory, and the consumption of meats, fats, fruits, all forms of calories really, were on the rise.  Back then it was in vogue to host dinner parties, barbeques, potlucks, cocktail parties as a display of affluence and luxury.  Foreign dishes and imported foods bespoke the globalization of food culture and the increasing ease of long distance transportation; and junk food was beginning to be the calorie of choice for a herd of young baby boomers.  While it may seem mundane to us, the food culture of the 1960's was indicative of a time of change and the availability of cheap and plentiful energy.

You can see the roots of our current American food system even back in the 60's, so perhaps through some reflection on today we can discover the roots of a future food system. 

The crucial decision for the future of the American food will be whether we opt, as a society, to reduce our energy use through a slew of energy policies, or whether we wait for the price of energy to rise due to dwindling resources and increasing demand.  Either way, it is inevitable that the fossil fuel economy will not be able to support our current patterns of consumption indefinitely.  Transportation, packaging, processing, growing, harvesting, fertilizing, and storing food all rely on cheap energy, without which prices would greatly exceed demand. 

This will mean big change for the way a large majority of Americans get their food.  Fruits, vegetables, meats, and grains will begin to occupy a limited space and time, meaning we won't be able to get whatever we want, whenever we want.  All of the fossil fuels that went into making the grocery store a veritable cornucopia will no longer be available, requiring a bit more thought when it comes to self-provisioning. 

I'm optimistic.  I believe that our creativity will allow us to start making food a more purposeful and planned experience integrated into more aspects of our daily lives.  We'll involve more people in the process of getting food from the seed to the plate.  The milkman and the mailman might team up in an effort to cut costs and energy use; or perhaps we will make full use of neighborhood groups that encourage and teach food preparation of more processed goods like butter, beer, and other crucial items. 

A lack of cheap energy will also limit where and when we can grow our food, and, as a corollary,  what we can grow.  Small farms and gardens will be encouraged and facilitated as a way to supplement what comes into urban areas from medium-sized, family farms on the periphery.  Without cheap transportation and farms based on economies of scale we're going to have to eat winter squash in the winter, and summer squash in the summer with fewer non-seasonal exceptions.  Perhaps there is still a role for groceries 50 years from now, but if so they'll have to be based on a co-op model - owned and operated by the people that supply them - rather than the Krogers, Giants, and Woolworths of the world. 

To me, this sounds fun.  I'm excited to take on the challenge of being more purposeful in my eating habits, and of working with others to provision myself and those I love.  It's not all doom and gloom in a post-Carbon world. 

Bet on Big Corn

Attempting to predict what food and agriculture will look like in 50 years is a tall task.  50 years ago microwaves were a luxury, the fast-food industry was in its infancy, and farms were smaller and less specialized.  In short, a person living in 1962 would have been hard pressed to envision the current state of food and agriculture in the U.S. As such, I expect that by 2012 what we eat and how we grow it will be drastically different.

Initially, when I pondered my answer to this question, I thought more about the recent trend toward organics, slow food, and traditional techniques.  Maybe this represented the future.  However, I saw some issues with the plausibility of this, and reading Robert Paarlberg's Foreign Policy article reinforced my skepticism and really got me thinking as to whether organic, slow farming techniques are actually even a good thing.  I will not address his stance on pesticides as it directly contradicts Cesar Chavez's message, but simply, Parrlberg makes it clear that the world would not be able to the current population.  As such, I believe that agriculture and food will become even more mechanized and high tech in the future.  I anticipate that there will be even larger farms that are even more specialized. I expect, however, that there will also be a substantial increase in lab-grown food, particularly meat products.  Feedlots are currently among the most controversial issues within the food industry because of the cruel treatment to which animals are subjected as well as the health risks involved.  As such, I suspect that feed lots will be a thing of the past and that animals will either be raised free range or synthetic meat will be grown in a lab, which I imagine could be more controversial.

As far as what people actually consume, I would like to say that I expect people to eat healthier and consume less processed foods.  Considering recent advances in nutrition and health movements, I think that this is possible.  I also expect that city and state governments will start placing taxes on or outright banning certain products like how some cities have banned trans-fats.  That said, I do not expect corn-syrup to go anywhere as the primary sweetener used in the U.S.  Big Corn, unfortunately, is here to stay.  Realistically, no politician or group of politicians is going to risk passing legislation against it; the corn industry simply has too much money and too strong of a lobby to fight. 

Barring the discovery/invention of a clean, cheap, and reliable fuel source, food transportation costs will have risen swiftly in 50 years.  As a result, though most parts of the U.S. will still be able to afford to have their food shipped to them from all over the world, poorer areas and poorer nations certainly will not be able to do so.  Accordingly, we will either see the rise of some local, cheaper agriculture or we will see the expansion of food deserts in poor areas.  Grocery stores will be large and un-specialized.  Finally, I expect to see a rise in individuals growing their own vegetables, herbs, and spices in the suburbs as way to counteract rising food costs as a result high fuel prices.  In more urban ares, there will be an increase in the number of community gardens.  Overall, food will be extremely different in 50 years; in what way it will be different, however, could vary greatly.

The Future of American Food

The pattern of food consumption in the Unite States has undergone such drastic changes often in short spans of time that it is safe to assume that what Americans will be eating in 50 years will not be identical to what people are eating today.  Who would have guessed 70 years ago that Americans in the 21^st century would be eating processed food injected with an assortment of chemicals, food coloring and artificial flavors? I believe that a driving force of the changes in food consumption is the constant advancement and integration of food, technology, and science. Take the TV dinner  (frozen meals) as an example of the way our consumption patterns have changed. While freezing food has been around for centuries, it wasn’t until the 20^th century when they started to actually develop the techniques that are being used today. Advancements in science allowed manufacturers to freeze food in a short amount of time without compromising much of its original taste. Developments in the assembly line technology allowed for a streamline manufacturing process that could produce safe and consistent frozen meals. I strongly believe that science and technology will continue to play a huge role in the future of the American food system.

In 50 years, Americans will continue to eat even more processed food than the amount we currently consume. Corn, wheat, and rice will still be staples of the American diet due to the strong efforts of powerful lobbying groups on behalf of these industries. Meat consumption in the future will decrease. There have studies that show that meat consumption in the United States has already declined, partially due to the exposure of the production of “pink slime” or lean finely texturized beef (LFTB). One critical change is that we will be eating a lot more food-like substances in the future. It is highly possible that scientists will create more food-like substances that are along the lines of LFTB; Using leftover parts of food that we do not usually eat to make a new food substance that is cheap to produce and easy to store and transport. This is not a far-fetched idea considering the fact that scientists are already toying with the concept and are creating food out of waste and unwanted by products of other food. Some scientists in Japan are already literally creating food out of waste when they devised a method to make hamburgers out of human excrement. This trend will only strengthen in the future when humans run out of land to grow all the foo needed to feel the billions of people on Earth.

Land is going to be scare in 50 years so most of the fruits and vegetables will be grown overseas and imported into the United States. This allows for a wide variety of fruits and vegetables that ignores seasonal rules and other constraints that come with growing our own produce on American soil.  Meanwhile, many of the grains such as corn and wheat will still be grown and subsidized by the government in the United States. There will be a rise in meat products being grown in the lab. A small number of corporations will still have tight control over the food production in the United States. Most of the food will be produced by a handful of companies that have sub-divisions so as to give off an appearance of diversity in the super market. In contrast, I believe that many middle class families will start to grow some of other own foods in their backyards once they can afford to move to the suburbs where they have a small plot of land to farm on.  

Americans will continue to buy their food through super markets but I believe that there will be more stores that resemble wholesalers such as Costco and Sam’s Club than small mom and pop stores. In 50 years, a trip to the super market will exclusively consist of going to large warehouses and getting everything you need for the entire month. On a side note, refrigerators will have to increase in size in order to accommodate all that food. Food that is grown abroad will be imported into the United States using the traditional methods of air and ship travel. Food grown in the United States will most likely be transported through long haul trucking. It is possible that networks of food distribution channels will be created in major American cities. Food will be grown close by and will be transported to the warehouses for storage on a weekly basis. 

Video about Japanese Poop Burger: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/16/scientist-poop-burger-video_n_878210.html

If we build it, they will come (to eat)

My poor attempt at commissioning the quote from Field of Dreams to my cause actually does relate to how I foresee changes in the American Food System coming about.  There has been a recent effort to reconnect the city man to his rural roots, by reintroducing greenery into urban areas, especially with food deserts. Even though there are small efforts few and far in between, the success of current programs has the ability to spur the growth of similar city-greenhouses. Subsidizing these initiatives will not only bring employment to city areas hit hardest by growing urban poverty. Targeting food deserts will become more of a priority in the foreseeable future as obesity rates are skyrocketing despite hunger rates in urban areas, but also are a beachhead for propelling effecting farming practices.

In 50 years, I see the food system dominated by two main forces, subsidized highly efficient and high-density farms in neighborhood and urban settings which provide the majority of produce local populations, and then the large staples farms will continue to produce rice, grains, and maize. Because much of our economy is based on serving as the breadbasket for the world, disassembling that system will be difficult, if not impossible. That being said, I also see the increase of eating more locally grown staples because of the implementation of a food transportation tax. This is an artificial way to control demand because there will be fines attached to foods which travel long distances, which can help disassemble the expectation that, for example, I can have avocados everyday of the year. Regional and time-based food cycles help encourage the reemergence of local diets and cuisine, which are typically more well-suited to the environment and the consumer's health. 

As I see the large companies/farms remaining in control of the staple crops, the biggest change will come in the localizing of produce. I see farm companies which currently grow produce on a massive scale turning to in-city projects as well as helping subsidizing and starting efforts to promote local produce production. I see people who might now be out of work now being 'sent back to the fields' for part-time work. With enough support, cities will be fully reliant upon their own sources for produce, and will bring in crops they cannot produce, the staples. This will cut down food transportation costs and the environmental impact.

I see this being possible because of the relationship that man has with nature. It is rare to come across people  who scoff at the idea of being out in nature. It's the entire reason we have parks in cities, appraise houses with nice gardens, and even sell house plants. It's a way to remain close to nature, despite being removed from a rural naturalistic setting. The Hook piece this week really touches on this, how there is a natural relationship and desire to be with the land. It may be because of how I was raised, but I need never as complete as when I am surrounded by nature, and working in gardens gives me the same satisfaction. There seems to be an innate relationship between us and the land, and with life satisfaction decreasing with the spread of urbanization and consumerism, I believe putting being back to work in the dirt will be a way to improve livelihood while setting up a new system which decreases our impact on the environment.

iGreen

We live in an app-centric world. Our lives our connected through synchronized social media networks where Intagramed photos are shared on Twitter, which are then posted as Facebook statuses. The technology of the twenty-first century has compressed the world into the space-time of seconds instead of the distance of thousands of miles. Technology undoubtedly plays a role in addressing environmental concerns, but there is a potential danger in a hyper-reliance on the technological silver bullet to allow for unmitigated growth and environmental stability and sustainability.

It is easy to get stuck in the trap that the inventor and innovator, the Steve Jobs or Albert Einstein, will discover the solution to the environmental crises of energy, climate change, pollution, etc., etc. A false reliance on the development of free energy, cold fusion, or a way to turn all of our trash back into usable products is as dangerous as the damage that is currently being done each and every day across the globe. Such a reliance breeds an attitude of waiting for the solution to appear versus taking the necessary steps to end the problem. We see this attitude all the time in terms of renewable energy. Governments, businesses, and individuals all seem to wait on the edge of their seats for super efficient wind energy or cheap solar panels. "Once the technology catches up..." everything will solve itself.

However, that is not to say that the work of Steve Jobs and other twenty-first century innovators cannot be critical in developing solutions for environmental problems. Perhaps the greatest and most powerful invention of the twenty-first century are is new ways to connect people instantaneously from every corner of the world. Social media helped give rise to the Arab Spring and can help give rise to a Green Spring and a Green Revolution. The Internet and social media allows for collaboration, crowd-sourcing, and connections that span religions, cultures, and oceans. Recently scientists took to the Internet to solve the structure of an protein related to HIV; online gamers solved the structure in three weeks...scientists had struggled for more than a decade.

Similar collaboration can be used to address environmental concerns like pollution, renewable energy, and biodiversity. The technology of the twenty-first century allows billions of minds to work towards shared goals, and focusing these goals on long term environmental concerns would be the most powerful step in the green movement in decades. Technology cannot be relied upon to solve problems, but technology can be used to enable the collective human species to solve problems. If Twitter and Facebook can topple decades of authoritarian regimes, technology can certainly be utilized to address environmental concerns. #greenfuture